The Global Sociology Blog

Via the Guardian,

“In its half-century history, the EU has absorbed wave upon wave of immigrants. There were the millions of political migrants fleeing Russian-imposed communism to western Europe throughout the cold war, the post-colonial and “guest worker” migrants who poured into western Europe in the boom years of the 1950s and 60s, the hundreds of thousands who escaped the Balkan wars of the 90s and the millions of economic migrants of the past decade seeking a better life. Now, according to the EU’s two senior foreign policy officials, Europe needs to brace itself for a new wave of migration with a very different cause - global warming.”

They are called “environmental migrants” and we can expect more of them immigrating into the EU in the years to come. We already know that the Global South will bear the brunt of the consequences of global climate change. People deprived of livelihood and social prospects will migrate to more favorable economic environment. The EU will be a prominent destination and it needs to prepare for the consequences of mass immigration, like it or not. According to the New Internationalist, we already have pretty clear global data on this:

• There are 135 million people whose land is under threat of becoming desert.

• Around 900 million of the poorest people in the world, existing on less than a dollar a day, live in areas vulnerable to soil erosion, droughts, desertification and floods.

• An estimated 200 million people will have to move due to rising sea levels by 2010.

• Climate change is predicted to trigger the migration of 50 million people from famine-affected areas by the year 2050.

• Around 550 million people already suffer chronic water shortage. Three billion are expected to live in countries without enough water by the year 2025.

The damage is already perceivable in the Global South but the Global North will not be exempt: welcome to the Global Village where everything is interconnected. And mass migration is only one of the major consequences (or threats, according to the report drafted by Javier Solana and Benita Ferrero-Waldner for the European Commission):

• Destabilisation of parts of the world vital to European security,
• Radicalisation of politics and populations,

• North-South conflict because of the perceived injustice of the causes and effects of global warming,

• Famines caused by arable land loss,
• Wars over water, energy, and other natural resources.

Bottom line: the global era is already marked by conflicts triggered by environmental pressures (something Michael T. Klare already outlined in Resource Wars).

Javier Solana himself wrote a column in the Guardian to push for a wake-up call on all these issues. His argument is that the scientific debate is over: global climate change is happening. Now is the time for action and prevention. The EU need to strengthen its commitment to reducing its carbon footprint but also needs to be more involved in conflict prevention and management with the necessary funding. Solana also suggests what he calls “carbon diplomacy“: help build capacity in the countries of the Global South that we already know will be hit the hardest. Finally, international statutes, laws and treaties need to be reviewed to determine whether they are adapted to the situation, and if necessary, revised.

“With rising waters and melting sea ice, there is an increasing need to address the growing debate over territorial claims, exclusive economic zones, and access to new trade routes. There might be a need to strengthen existing rules of international law such as the Law of the Sea. Some countries that are extremely vulnerable to climate change are also calling for international recognition of environmentally induced migration.”

In the end, it is in Europe’s interest to tackle these issues, otherwise, it will pay a different price than the countries from the Global South, but a price nonetheless.